Rok 2023 se nesl ve znamení návratu do reality: silný post-kovidový růst z let 2021 a 2022 je minulostí a dluhy vytvořené v období pandemie bylo nutné splatit, což dokládá i loňský 7% nárůst insolvenčního indexu společnosti Allianz Trade. A současnost? Očekává se, že počet insolvencí letos celosvětově vzroste o 10 %. Růst HDP zůstane jen mírný a bude činit v globálním měřítku přibližně 2,3 % (oproti 2,7 % v roce 2023).
Receivables insurance
The world economy in the first quarter of 2024: back to reality, rising insolvencies and an election year
17.5.2024
Political risks will be a key indicator for the development of the world economy.
The following 3 factors will influence the development in particular:
- Election Year: Countries that produce 60% of the world’s GDP will hold important elections in 2024. The elections will cover all regions: from Europe to Russia, Asia to Latin America. Mainly nationalistic and protectionist tendencies can have an influence on the development of the global economy.
- Political instability: the attacks in the Red Sea, the conflict between Israel and Palestine, the war in Ukraine or the nationalization in Mexico… these are all events negatively affecting the outlook of the world economy.
- Indirect effects of political risk: internationally applied sanctions can lead to disruptions in supply chains, particularly in minerals and energy, with a potentially significant impact on the growth of corporate insolvencies.
Which countries saw the most significant drop in ratings?
- Israel from 3 to 4 (war, interest rates, inflation)
- Niger from 8.25 to 9 (coup d’état and international sanctions)
Check out AU Group G-Grade, Global Country Risk Analysis. Download a file with a detailed analysis of the economic situation in all regions of the world for the first quarter of 2024. If you are interested in more about how G-Grade works, also go through one of the updates on our website.
About AU Group
AU Group is an independent international broker specializing in trade receivables. The group’s goal is to help companies optimize trade receivables and support growth. ARFiN has been part of this global network since 2013. It offers its partners products protecting their business activities from political risks in Europe and the world.
